Experiment Canvas
How do we validate our assumption?
Objective: Determine how you will validate the most important assumption with what kind of experiment.
Work instruction short
- Duration: 45 – 60 minutes (depending on the case and group size)
- Complexity: 4/5
- Group size: 2 – 6 participants
Introduction Assumption Testing: From Idea to Measurable Results
Once you've discovered which assumptions are riskiest, you need to figure out how to test and measure them in a clear way. Ash Maurya's Experiment Canvas helps you break down assumptions into simple, measurable experiments.
To check whether your assumptions are correct, set up experiments. This means that you translate an idea into something that you can measure. You devise a testing method that suits your project and that allows you to see whether your assumption is correct.
A good experiment gives you clear, measurable results. The Experiment Canvas helps you turn your ideas into hypotheses that you can test and measure.
How do you use the canvas?
An experiment helps you discover whether an assumption you have about your idea is actually true. You start with a hypothesis, which is an assumption that you think is true. Then you estimate the outcome, such as the number of users, the time it takes, or the impact it has. These numbers should be easy to measure so that you can compare them to the results of the experiment.
To test the hypothesis, make a plan for the experiment. You consider how you are going to test the hypothesis, who you need, and what resources you need. Make sure you can track and understand the results.
Once you have conducted the experiment, look at the results and draw a conclusion. Was your hypothesis correct, or is what you thought wrong? Based on this outcome, you decide whether to continue with your idea or whether you need to adjust something.
- Most Critical Assumption
Which assumption do you want to test to see if it is correct? - Hypothesis
Translate the assumption into a testable expectation. What do you think will come out of the test? - Experiment design
How will you test the hypothesis? What kind of prototype or testing method do you use? - Results
What measurable data will emerge from the experiment? - Conclusion
Compare the results with your hypothesis. Was your assumption correct, or not? - Next steps
Based on the conclusion, decide whether to continue, adjust your idea, or do an additional test.
Step by step guide
This guide is an example that you can adapt to your way of working and the situation.
Preparation
As a facilitator, you ensure that the Experimental Canvas is printed in large format (A1) and that you have markers and post-its ready.
You can use this canvas immediately after the opening, or even as part of the opening.
Checklist
- Invitation: Mention time, location, theme, and possibly an inspiring question or link.
- Space: Choose a large and comfortable space, decorated differently than usual, with whiteboards and other tools.
- Materials: Hang the canvas and provide markers and post-its.
- Welcome drinks: Provide coffee, tea, and water.
- Facilitator check: Check 30 minutes in advance whether everything is ready with the co-facilitator or client, or do this yourself.
Experiment Canvas Getting Started
The Canvas can be used both physically and online via tools such as LucidSpark, Miro, Mural, or Teams Whiteboard. Make sure everyone can see the Canvas clearly.
Step 1: Introduction of the Assumption (5 min)
Briefly explain what the assumption is and why this session is important: you will devise an experiment to test whether the assumption is correct. Also explain why this assumption is important.
Step 2: Convert Assumption to Hypothesis (10 min)
Have the participants convert the assumption into a measurable hypothesis. First determine which indicators are important to test the assumption. Make a clear expectation of those indicators.
Step 3: Design the Experiment (10 min)
Have participants think about how they can test the hypothesis. Do they need a prototype? What are they going to measure? How often does this have to happen to draw good conclusions? Check whether everything is prepared or whether anything is missing.
Step 4: View Results (10 min)
Determine together with the participants how you will present the results. Do you use Excel, a graph, or something else?
Step 5: Conduct the Experiment
Perform the experiment and record the results.
Step 6: Draw the Conclusion (10 min)
Analyze the results. Do they match what you expected? If so, then your hypothesis is confirmed. If not, then your assumption is incorrect.
Step 7: Determine the Next Steps (10 min)
Use the results to determine whether you can continue with your project, do a new test, or adjust your idea.
Wrapping up
End with a brief review and discuss what went well.
Good luck and have fun with this guide!